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UNDERSTAND THE RELEASE

Non-Manufacturing PMI

What it means. Why markets react.
What happened in previous releases.

CNYChinese yuanLow impact
Release time · UTCOct 31, 202601:30 UTC
Actual ?The figure published for this release. A dash means no numerical value has been supplied; speeches often have none. —
Forecast ?The expected figure supplied by the calendar provider. Markets often react to the difference between this expectation and the actual figure. 50.0
Previous ?The figure for the previous reporting period. It may have been revised. Comparing actual with previous measures change over time, not the surprise against expectations. 50.2

This event has not taken place yet. The explanation describes what to watch, rather than a confirmed outcome.

01
THE EVENT, EXPLAINED

In plain English.

This business survey summarises changes reported by purchasing managers. For headline PMI diffusion indices, 50 usually separates expansion from contraction relative to the previous month. Check sector coverage and component readings.

THE ECONOMY

What can it change?

Stronger activity can support earnings and employment; weaker activity can change the growth outlook and expected policy response.

CNY / CURRENCY

Why does the currency react?

A positive surprise can support the currency when it improves relative growth or interest-rate expectations. A weak report can have the opposite effect, depending on what markets had already priced in.

Read the currency pairs.

The same currency move points in different directions depending on which side of the pair it sits.

USD/CNH

If the Chinese yuan strengthens relative to the US dollar, this pair tends to fall; relative weakness tends to push it higher.

AUD/USD

The connection is indirect, through trade, growth and risk sentiment. The calendar title does not establish a direction for this pair.

How does gold fit in?

The effect on XAU/USD is usually indirect. Watch the US dollar, real US bond yields and safe-haven demand. Gold can rise in a weakening local currency without rising in US dollars.

AT RELEASE TIME

What should you watch?

Compare actual with forecast, check the reporting period and any revisions, then examine the components. One release does not describe the whole economy.

Educational basis for this explanation
How monetary policy reaches the economy · ECB ↗
02 / HISTORICAL PRICE REACTION

What happened before?

Actual price movement after past releases of this event. Choose a market and a time window.

Historical coverage is still being built.

No complete, verified price window is available for this event yet. Historical reactions will appear here when sufficient data has been recorded.

These explanations describe economic mechanisms. Market expectations, liquidity and simultaneous releases can change the actual price response.