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UNDERSTAND THE RELEASE

Unemployment Claims

What it means. Why markets react.
What happened in previous releases.

USDUS dollarMedium impact
Release time · UTCOct 22, 202612:30 UTC
Actual ?The figure published for this release. A dash means no numerical value has been supplied; speeches often have none. —
Forecast ?The expected figure supplied by the calendar provider. Markets often react to the difference between this expectation and the actual figure. 200K
Previous ?The figure for the previous reporting period. It may have been revised. Comparing actual with previous measures change over time, not the surprise against expectations. 199K

No numerical actual has been supplied for this event. The explanation describes its economic context and conditional scenarios.

01
THE EVENT, EXPLAINED

In plain English.

This release describes jobs, unemployment or earnings. Job creation, the unemployment rate and wage growth measure different parts of the labour market.

THE ECONOMY

What can it change?

Stronger employment can support household income and spending. Labour shortages and stronger wages may add price pressure; weaker hiring can soften the growth outlook.

USD / CURRENCY

Why does the currency react?

An unexpected improvement can support the currency through growth and rate expectations. Higher unemployment or more jobless claims usually signals weaker conditions, rather than stronger job growth.

Read the currency pairs.

The same currency move points in different directions depending on which side of the pair it sits.

EUR/USD

If the US dollar strengthens relative to the euro, this pair tends to fall; relative weakness tends to push it higher.

GBP/USD

If the US dollar strengthens relative to the British pound, this pair tends to fall; relative weakness tends to push it higher.

USD/JPY

If the US dollar strengthens relative to the Japanese yen, this pair tends to rise; relative weakness tends to push it lower.

USD/CHF

If the US dollar strengthens relative to the Swiss franc, this pair tends to rise; relative weakness tends to push it lower.

How does gold fit in?

For dollar-priced gold, the US dollar and real US bond yields are important channels. A shift towards higher expected rates may put pressure on gold, while safe-haven demand or inflation expectations can alter the reaction.

AT RELEASE TIME

What should you watch?

Check the exact measure, revisions and companion releases. Payrolls, unemployment, participation and wages can point in different directions, so the headline alone may mislead.

Educational basis for this explanation
How monetary policy reaches the economy · ECB ↗
02 / HISTORICAL PRICE REACTION

What happened before?

Actual price movement after past releases of this event. Choose a market and a time window.

Market
After release
18 releases analysed ?The number of past releases with a complete price window for this market and duration. The count may change when you select another window.
Sample period · UTC
2026/06/182026/10/15
Movement unit
USD / oz ?Forex is measured in pips: normally 0.0001, or 0.01 for JPY pairs. Gold is measured in US dollars per troy ounce. These are price movements, not profit for a chosen lot size.
Typical move ?For every release, measure its largest distance from the release price in either direction. The median is the middle of those distances. It describes a typical recorded move and is less sensitive to one extreme event than the mean. 23.12USD / oz · median maximum distance
Largest recorded move ?The largest maximum move among all the releases in this sample. It is one historical observation, not a target or a limit on future movement. 63.23USD / oz · largest in the sample
Mean end-of-window change ?The average of the end-of-window price minus the release price. Opposite signed changes can offset each other. A large initial spike may therefore coexist with a small average net change. +3.04USD / oz · net change
LATEST COMPLETE RELEASE2026/10/15
Maximum move · 1 hour ?The greater of the maximum rise and maximum fall from the release price. Example: from 2,000 to a high of 2,010 and a low of 1,996, the maximum move is 10, not the high-to-low range of 14. 24.12 USD / oz
Net change · 1 hour ?The price at the end of the window minus the release price. Positive means it ended higher; negative means lower. It does not measure the largest move along the way. +2.36 USD / oz

How far did price move each way?

Average maximum distance from the release price ?The average of each release’s maximum rise and, separately, maximum fall. These excursions can both occur in one window and at different times. They are not a forecast, a net change or a tradable return.

↓ Downside 16.72 USD / ozUpside ↑ 16.46 USD / oz

Centre = release price ?The reference is the opening price of the broker candle aligned with the release. All distances are measured from that same price.

These are two separate averages across 18 releases. A release can move both up and down within 1 hour; this does not show which happened first.

At the end of 1 hour, 50% of releases finished above the release price and 50% finished below it.Percentages describe the share of releases ending above or below the release price, not the size of the move or a probability of trade success. Unchanged closes may account for the remainder; percentages are rounded.
Explore the releases & calculation details

Each window starts at the opening price of the broker candle aligned with the release. Maximum movement is the greatest distance from that price, not the high-to-low range. A reversal after an initial spike does not erase the spike; the net change at the end is shown separately. Only complete candle windows without missing intervals are included.

M1 precision: 17 ?M1 means one-minute candles; M15 means fifteen-minute candles. Candle highs and lows capture excursions, but do not establish the order of every tick within a candle. M15 precision: 1 ?M1 means one-minute candles; M15 means fifteen-minute candles. Candle highs and lows capture excursions, but do not establish the order of every tick within a candle. Mean maximum move: 28.15 USD / oz ?The arithmetic average of the maximum moves. Unlike the median, a single unusually large release can move this number substantially. 90th percentile: 50.43 USD / oz ?Approximately 90% of the recorded maximum moves fall at or below this historical percentile. It is available only with at least ten observations and is not a future probability or maximum.

Simultaneous releases ?Other announcements in the same release window can affect the same prices. The observed move cannot be attributed to this one headline alone. share the same price window. The move may reflect several announcements. The table shows the latest 12 complete observations; the summaries use all 18 observations in the selected sample.

Hover, focus or tap a question mark for an explanation. Table unit: USD / oz.

Date · UTC ?Dates and release times use Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), so the same release can fall on a different local date. Maximum move ?The greater of the maximum rise and maximum fall from the release price. Example: from 2,000 to a high of 2,010 and a low of 1,996, the maximum move is 10, not the high-to-low range of 14. Maximum rise ?The highest recorded price within the window minus the release price, shown as a non-negative distance. Maximum fall ?The release price minus the lowest recorded price within the window, shown as a non-negative distance. Net end change ?The price at the end of the window minus the release price. Positive means it ended higher; negative means lower. It does not measure the largest move along the way.
2026/10/15M124.1214.7224.12+2.36
Other releases in the same window
  • Core PPI m/m
  • Core Retail Sales m/m
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • PPI m/m
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Retail Sales m/m
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/10/08M117.900.4217.90-7.91
2026/10/01M111.788.7011.78-11.78
2026/09/24M113.3413.346.79+4.79
Other releases in the same window
  • Current Account
  • FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/09/17M122.130.0022.13-14.30
Other releases in the same window
  • Building Permits
  • Housing Starts
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/09/10M139.838.3439.83-6.45
Other releases in the same window
  • Core PPI m/m
  • PPI m/m
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/09/03M149.0149.010.32+32.95
Other releases in the same window
  • FOMC Member Waller Speaks
  • Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
  • Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q
  • Trade Balance
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/08/27M115.911.0215.91-5.43
Other releases in the same window
  • Goods Trade Balance
  • Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/08/20M125.2425.248.23+12.36
Other releases in the same window
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/08/13M111.0211.0210.51-6.00
Other releases in the same window
  • Core PPI m/m
  • PPI m/m
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/08/06M130.959.1930.95-13.93
Other releases in the same window
  • Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
  • Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
  • Unemployment Claims
2026/07/30M112.069.5512.06+3.08
Other releases in the same window
  • Advance GDP Price Index q/q
  • Advance GDP q/q
  • Core PCE Price Index m/m
  • Personal Income m/m
  • Personal Spending m/m
  • Unemployment Claims
Based on LiteFinance broker candle history · Archive updated 2026/10/22.Only markets and windows with complete coverage are shown. Figures are historical price distances, not account returns.

These explanations describe economic mechanisms. Market expectations, liquidity and simultaneous releases can change the actual price response.